Abiodun S Momodu
Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria
Title: System dynamics modeling of low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system
Biography
Biography: Abiodun S Momodu
Abstract
Policy makers seek to understand needed trade-offs between economic growth and climate change. This provides the context to explore low-carbon development (LCD) pathways for the West African electricity system. The study relied on both primary and secondary sources of data elicited from relevant authorities in its electricity system, namely, West African Power Pool and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority. Low-carbon development strategy (LCDS) as a planning process in West African Power Pool was evaluated. System dynamics (SD) model was developed to assess the relevance of the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction. Tension between providing adequate supply capacity against reducing emission from the generation technologies in the West African electricity system was examined. This model arranged the complexities in the system and established the basic interconnecting structure to conduct the analysis. Four high leverage points were identified, namely, capacity factor (CF), emission factor (EF), time to adjust capacity, and expectation formation. CF and EF improvement increased efficiency in the system. The expectation formation periods were determined at 7.5 years for the base case scenario and 7 years for the LCD option scenario. Time to adjust capacity was located at 21 and 20 years respectively; deduced from the average time it will take to construct a combined cycle gas power plant (3 years) and an allowance of 2 years for delays and its decommissioning time. Between 2011 and 2012, in LCD option scenario, emission of GHG to the atmosphere dropped as generation did but began a steady rise for the simulation period to 6.154 bt CO2 in 2060. The high leverage points identified in the model simulation situate three policy options for overcoming poverty and mitigation targets as regards resource mix, investment cost recovery, and technical factors to reduce system’s environmental footprint.